A limited version of the TE3 model that can be opened with free software is available in the supplementary material of this paper.
If you would like to receive a copy of the full TE3 model, contact us (check also your junk/spam folder, as our reply may unfortunately land there).
Why was the TE3 model developed?
A comprehensive description of the TE3 model can be found in the published version of my thesis (see Publications). The thesis also provides details on the context of the modelling exercise.
Purpose of the model
As indicated in my thesis:
“The purpose of the model developed in this thesis is to facilitate policy analysis in the context of car market upturn […]. The policy analysis based on the developed model shall support the exploration, adopting the ‘what-if’ device, of policy options” (p. 65).
“Forecasting is by no means the purpose of the model” (p. 66).
“The purpose of the model reflects different levels of ambition, ranging from a modest contribution to ongoing research to an opensource teaching tool to policy-making decision support. For the highest level of ambition, additional modelling efforts from the scientific community are welcomed” (p. 237; emphasis now added).
Version of the model publicly available
The version of the model which is publicly available is the one I used for my thesis, developed until early 2017. For several key variables, this model version relied on data from 2015. This is visible in e.g. the battery cost data which was used to inform the model building. Earlier versions of the model were shared with reviewers and presented at conferences (see Publications). Depending on time availability, I might release newer versions of the model.
Why am I publishing the model online?
Because (i) public institutions funded my work and therefore the public should have access to my research output; and (ii) research work should be reproducible by the research community.
As indicated on p. 237 of my thesis, the model basically represents a “framework for forward-looking thinking that can be reproduced, applied, improved and extended”. Admittedly, publishing the model online increases the risk that the weaknesses and errors of the model become more evident. But despite such risk, I believe that scenarios exercises, in order to be useful, should be transparent. I will soon release a short paper that lists a series of model limitations, in addition to the ones already highlighted in my published work.
Feedback on TE3
If you would like to provide any feedback on the model, feel free to get in touch. I’d be particularly grateful if you find data that should not be there, particularly erroneous values.
In general, I’m open to collaborate on research projects and/or publications that draw from the TE3 model. But realistically I’m constrained by time availability.
If you use the TE3 model to produce your own analysis and output, remember to cite the source of your work and please share it with me.
To run the TE3 model, you need Microsoft Excel® and Vensim® DSS, which is a commercial software offered by Ventana Systems Inc. These pieces of software are not provided with the TE3 model and should be sourced from authorised vendors.